AI could displace one in 11 workers, Goldman says, but the layoffs are likely waiting for a recession
Source: Fortune ·
Goldman’s Joseph Briggs finds companies have historically saved automation layoffs for downturns and he's updating his projection of the AI jobs impact.
From the source
The AI layoff panic that peaked this spring has gone quiet. Goldman Sachs thinks the layoffs are waiting for a recession. “Concerns of imminent AI-related labor displacement have cooled in recent months after hitting a fever pitch this spring,” Goldman economist Joseph Briggs wrote in a note published Thursday. Then he laid out what may be coming. Under the bank’s forecast that AI eventually lifts productivity by 15% in the U.S. and other developed economies, he found that up to 9% of workers could be “displaced during the AI transition,” with slower hiring weighing on employment by another 3%. That’s roughly one in 11 workers. The bigger finding is about timing. Briggs went back through decades of data on how technology has replaced workers and found that “automation-related labor disruption is limited when the overall economy is healthy but accelerates during cyclical slowdowns.” “AI-related labor disruptions could well amplify the broader business cycle,” he wrote. Goldman has now…