This top data scientist’s (non-AI) model finds Republicans have just one chance in six of holding Senate
Source: Fortune ·
Northwestern University professor Thomas Miller 'Nowcast' incorporates data from betting markets along with economic and financial models to project the odds for candidates in the Senate races.
From the source
I started following Thomas Miller’s political forecasts during the January 2021 Senate races in Georgia. Just a few days before the election, the polls and pundits anticipated a relatively easy win for both Republican candidates. But Miller—a prominent data scientist and professor at Northwestern University—posited a Democratic sweep, and he was right. He also called Trump’s victory in 2024. What’s different about Miller’s models? They’re far more current than the polls, and they’re centered on prediction market prices that are typically a better guide than the voter surveys—plus Miller adjusts the outlook in every Senatorial contest by using all we know about every contest. Now, Miller is applying an updated version of his model for the current Senate elections. You can find the stats on his website, Virtualtout.io, and I highly recommend paying a visit. Once again, Miller starts by incorporating the betting venues’ data. “I use the numbers from two sites, Polymarket and Kalshi,” he…