Following a sudden GOP slide, a top data scientist’s model gives Democrats 90% odds of taking the Senate as Kansas trends blue in major shock
Source: Fortune ·
In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall looked on track for easy re-election just two months ago at around 75%. His number's dipped to 43.9%, and suffered a 7.1% drop just in the past 24 hours.
From the source
Data scientist Thomas Miller’s site handicapping outcomes for the U.S. Senate races now shows overwhelming odds that the Democrats will take control, numbers much more commanding than even the polls and prediction markets are showing. As of around 9 am ET on Monday, Miller’s site, Virtualtout.io, gave the Democrats a 90% chance of winning at least 51 seats. In recent days, the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the upper chamber have virtually collapsed, dropping from 23% on Oct. 26 to under 10% now. A major reason from the quick downdraft, and a sign of the blue wave’s strength: Democrats now hold the lead in longtime red stronghold Kansas, and have turned Iowa into a virtual tossup. Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, won kudos for correctly forecasting that Democrats would sweep the two Georgia Senate runoffs in early 2021, when the polls and pundits posited GOP wins in both. He scored again by calling a Trump win in 2024. His methodology: Miller starts by…
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