‘We were wrong’: From Dewey to Trump, the polling misses hanging over the 2026 midterm forecasts
Source: Fortune ·
Forecasters favor Democrats on Election Day. But response rates have collapsed, and presidential polls have missed toward Democrats three cycles running. (153 characters)
From the source
One of the most iconic images in 20th-century American political history shows a beaming President Harry Truman holding up a copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune emblazoned with the headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.” In fact, Truman had just resoundingly defeated his Republican challenger, New York Gov. Thomas Dewey, winning 303 electoral votes to Dewey’s 189. The Tribune had gone to press before the race was called, but its editors can be given a measure of grace: just about every major poll put Dewey ahead. That includes the one this magazine published. Elmo Roper’s final survey for Fortune gave Dewey 44% to Truman’s 31%, and the editors wrote, “So decisive are the figures given here this month,” that no further detailed reports were planned, according to historian David Greenberg’s account in Politico. Seventy-eight years later, as Americans vote in the 2026 midterms, the major forecasters point to a strong night for Democrats. For companies and investors that plan around which party…
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