Prediction markets had a great election night: Now bettors are turning to which Trump officials could leave first

From the source

Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket correctly favored Democrats to win both chambers of Congress, and proved highly accurate in forecasting several key Senate races, helping boost the platforms’ reputation for accuracy. Now, with the midterms behind them, prediction market traders have shifted their attention toward what comes next. At a time when the incoming Democratic majorities are promising to investigate many aspects of the Trump Administration—from the war in Iran to allegations of corruption—traders are placing bets on who could be the next to leave Trump’s Cabinet. A market on Polymarket has drawn nearly $190,000 in trading volume, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among the leading contenders. As of Friday morning, Hegseth led at roughly 31%, followed by Wiles at 24% and Rubio at 8%. But traders also put the odds of no Cabinet departure before 2027 at about 27%. Hegseth’s lead…

BestAIBroker analysis

• Finance-aware sentiment: neutral (+0.00 on a -1 to +1 scale).
• Event classification: OTHER.
• Market importance score: 32/100, weighting entity relevance, source credibility, multi-outlet coverage and recency.